South Africa heavily dependent on Middle East for fertiliser supply
Corné Louw, applied economics and member services lead at Grain SA, said that the biggest issue facing producers of winter wheat and barley is not fertiliser supply, but rather price increases.
“As it was before the outbreak of the war, winter [grain] producers’ budget did not show positive margins. With the sudden increases in fuel and fertiliser prices, it just makes matter worse,” he said.
Drawing from Grain SA’s recently released Input Monitoring Report, he identified the escalating cost of raw fertiliser materials, fuelled by the Middle Eastern conflict, as the preeminent risk for grain producers.
“South Africa imports more than 80% of its fertiliser raw materials and finished products. Fertiliser is one of the highest-cost production inputs, making up roughly 35% to 50% of total producer costs. South Africa imported 1,92 million tons of fertiliser in 2025, with increased MAP, KCL and ammonia,” the report said.
“Sulphur and urea face the biggest risks as the Middle East region accounts for about 50% of global sulphur exports and approximately 34% of global urea exports. Recent market data from F-Curve Agri Insights shows urea [prices] increased by 9,4% week-on-week, while mono-ammonium phosphate (MAP) [prices] increased by 5,4%,” the report added.
Fertiliser shortage
Daniel Johnson, spokesperson for Dr Ivan Meyer, Western Cape Minister of Agriculture and Tourism, said the department was closely monitoring international and local price trends. He added that the department had been made aware of Foskor’s MAP shortage. He said that the shortage was due to a ship that was loaded with ammonia for Foskor being delayed in the Middle East.
“It was indicated that due to reliance on imports from the Middle Eastern market, the vessel that was supposed to arrive in March 2026 has been delayed,” he said.
Charlette Roetz, head of marketing and communications at Omnia, told Farmer’s Weekly that as one of South Africa’s largest producers and suppliers of fertiliser, the company was also closely monitoring the impact of the Middle East conflict.
Roetz added that should there be a MAP, or any other fertiliser, shortage in the country, Omnia had the capacity to manufacture it at their local plants or import the key raw ingredients needed.
“Omnia has not experienced any significant disruptions that impact our ability to supply customers. Through our agile supply chain, we have access to MAP and continue to supply our customers and distributors as normal. Should it be required, Omnia also has the ability to import phosphoric acid through its established and flexible supply channels.”
Critically, Roetz said that those commercial farmers who already placed orders before the price increases would not be affected by the recent price spikes.
“Many commercial farmers have already placed orders for fertiliser for the upcoming winter planting season, with these prices unchanged. While global supply chains may experience short-term disruption as geopolitical conditions evolve and trade flows adjust, Omnia has already put the necessary plans in place for the Western Cape winter planting season for our customers.”
Rudi Kriese, CEO of Trifert, a small fertiliser company in Limpopo, said that he was hopeful to see a turnaround soon should the war end.
“We are currently experiencing a shortage; we’re not able to source any urea in South Africa at this point in time. We are aware and have seen in the international fertiliser publications that urea prices have skyrocketed and we see that’s going to have a huge impact on fertiliser prices for the foreseeable future. However, we saw the same happen in June 2025 when Israel had the 12-day war with Iran. We also saw prices come down sharply when that conflict ended.”
According to Derek Rosmarin, a sales agent at ICL Fertilisers, the company’s supply across South Africa was continuing as per normal.
“Our supply is not affected by the Strait of Hormuz shipping delays, because it comes from the Mediterranean region.”
