FMD crisis hits meat supply, threatens exports, drives prices up

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The Bureau for Food and Agricultural Policy (BFAP) states in its recently released report ‘Initial Cost Estimates Linked to the FMD Crisis’ that foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) cases in South Africa jumped from a 20-year high of 7 700 in 2022 to 24 200 in 2025, highlighting how rapidly the disease burden has intensified.

According to the report, the economic fallout of FMD outbreaks could reach R3,2 billion for the beef industry under a medium-burden scenario and around R11,3 billion under a high-burden scenario. If lost export earnings are included, the total impact rises to R13,1 billion.

The economic impact on dairy farms is also severe, with losses estimated at more than R1 billion, considering outbreaks have been confirmed and contained on 91 dairy farms across the country since January 2024. Of these, 52 cases remain active.

Based on case studies in the Eastern Cape, losses per cow are estimated at close to R5 000 each due to reduced milk production, additional husbandry costs, veterinary expenses, and other associated impacts.

BFAP warns that continued pressure could push many dairy farms to shut down, resulting in major job losses in rural communities.

The impact of the disease on the pork, wildlife, and small stock industries, which also face significant hurdles and losses due to ongoing FMD outbreaks, was not included in the report.

Beef exports halted

While these figures reflect losses at farm and industry level, the ripple effects are increasingly being felt throughout the value chain, from feedlots and abattoirs to retailers and households.

Speaking to Farmer’s Weekly, Dr Dirk Verwoerd, head feedlot veterinarian at Karan Beef, confirmed that meat exports from the group were suspended when FMD was first detected at its Heidelberg feedlot, Gauteng, in June last year.

“Our export status was subsequently lifted, but Karan Beef is still not allowed to export,” he said, adding that other exporting feedlots affected by outbreaks are facing the same challenges.

BFAP noted that existing trade protocols with the Middle East have softened the blow, allowing certain unaffected abattoirs to continue exporting beef products. However, overall exports have still fallen sharply.

Overall, beef exports for the first 11 months of 2025 declined by 13 900t, equating to a reduction of R371 million compared with the same period in 2024. Beef exports to Jordan, the United Arab Emirates, and Kuwait fell by 33%, from 16 600t in 2024 to 10 900t in 2025.

Consumer prices rising

Wandile Sihlobo, chief economist at Agbiz, told Farmer’s Weekly that export closures would typically lower domestic prices, but 2025 saw the opposite.

“Panic buying, driven by retailers’ announcements rather than [actual] short supply, became the main driver of meat prices, and this still remains a reality,” he said.

Statistics South Africa data show year-on-year meat inflation rising from 12,2% in November 2025 to 12,6% in December.

Beef steak inflation rose from 28,4% to 29,4% over this period, while that on sausages increased from 18,5% to 19,4%, boerewors from 17,2% to 18,2%, mutton from 13,7% to 15%, and pork from 9,4% to 11,5%.

Sihlobo expects food inflation to ease in 2026 due to lower grain prices and strong fruit and vegetable supplies, but warned that meat prices remain vulnerable as long as FMD persists.

Industry instability and waste

Verwoerd warned that while higher meat prices have created some opportunism in the market, FMD has left the entire industry vulnerable.

“The disease is causing instability, and one cannot build an industry on instability,” he said.

“There are several hundred thousand animals that cannot be sold at the moment, causing a huge disruption in the supply chain which, over time, will affect everyone, from producers to consumers.”

He is particularly concerned about the impact the disease might have on the price of the fifth quarter of beef, including offal, heads, and feet, which is a valuable source of protein for lower-income consumers.

“A large volume of these fifth quarter products are now condemned and thrown away, even though they do not pose any risk to consumers,” he said.

Verwoerd also criticised what he described as outdated slaughter requirements, including pH regulations that result in meat being rejected despite being safe.

“The pH of slaughtered cattle should be six by the day after slaughter, according to a regulation written about four years ago, even though we know scientifically that the meat no longer poses a risk of FMD transmission thanks to all the other safety practices that have been built into the system,” he explained.

As a result, meat with a pH of 6,1 and higher is stored frozen and cannot be sold until these outdated and unsubstantiated regulations are changed.

“This has increased condemnations at Karan Beef from almost nothing to as much as 8%,” Verwoerd said.

“We are sitting with meat in our freezers worth over R70 million that cannot be sold, not because it is dangerous to consumers but because it does not comply with legislation.”