With most artificial trees sold in the US manufactured overseas, tariffs have added between 10% and 15% to the price of an average-sized artificial Christmas tree this year.
This was according to the American Christmas Tree Association (ACTA), which reported on its website that of the US$3,4 billion (about R56,8 billion) worth of Christmas décor imported into the US last year, about 87% came from China.
A glance at the US Christmas tree industry
The US Christmas tree market comprises a live and artificial segment, with research by the National Christmas Tree Association (NCTA) estimating that about 75% of US households display some type of Christmas tree each year.
The bulk of these are artificial, with ACTA stating that more than 80% of families indicate a preference for fake trees.
Although demand for live trees is much lower, the industry nonetheless remains an important agricultural niche. Data from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) and the NCTA indicate that American growers sell 25 million to 30 million real Christmas trees each year.
The USDA Census of Agriculture, conducted every five years, reports that Christmas tree farms generated more than US$550 million (R9,2 billion) in sales during the most recent census period (2022).
Production is concentrated in states such as Oregon, North Carolina, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, with thousands of smaller farms supplying regional markets. NCTA data indicate that the total Christmas tree production area (around 142 000ha) has remained relatively stable in recent years, as modest gains are offset by rising costs, labour constraints, and climate-related risks.
Drought, heat stress, and extreme weather events are affecting tree survival and quality in several production regions.
Meanwhile, demand for artificial trees has grown over the years for various reasons, mostly centred on convenience. One of the major advantages is their durability, with a good-quality artificial tree only needing replacement every five to 10 years, compared with real trees, which are an annual purchase.
The 2025 festive season
The artificial tree industry is, however, highly exposed to US trade policy. Industry estimates across various years have shown that as much as 90% of artificial trees sold in the US were manufactured in China.
Trump’s tariffs have translated directly into higher import costs for retailers and wholesalers. The timing of the tariffs has also had irreversible effects, as many domestic suppliers had already cancelled contracts earlier in the year and were unable to reorder when tariffs were eased slightly in the latter half of 2025.
ACTA said all imported Christmas décor is subject to tariffs of 30% or more, with items like holiday lighting hit by up to 60% on top of the décor tariff. A report by Reuters stated that retailers had started cutting orders in April, when tariffs were as high as 145%.
Therefore, the association forecast décor shortages.
“Major retailers have cut back [décor] purchases by 15% to 20% due to the increased costs, and this will likely lead to early sell-outs and an undersupply of about 15% for the Christmas 2025 market,” ACTA said.
Prices weren’t necessarily higher across the board, with some retailers absorbing a portion of the added cost to protect sales volumes, while others passed increases on to consumers, particularly in mid-range and premium tree categories.
Industry analysts and US retail reporting suggested price increases in the high single-digit to low double-digit range for many artificial tree models compared with last season.
Early-season observations and grower feedback suggested some consumers were reconsidering real trees this year, particularly price-sensitive households comparing a higher-priced artificial tree with a fresh-cut option.
However, this was also limited by supply constraints in the live tree industry, as Christmas tree production is a long-term agricultural investment. Depending on the species and growing conditions, trees typically require seven to 10 years to reach marketable size, meaning growers cannot rapidly increase supply in response to a single season of higher demand.
For live Christmas tree producers, tariff-driven price increases for artificial trees could lead to increased demand and slight price improvements on the back of limited supply.
For consumers, the likely outcome this season was higher prices across both categories or limited availability.
