Riaan Ferreira, director of Cape Town-based GF Marketing, which specialises in fruit exports to the Middle East, said uncertainty persists in this market as the war in Iran escalates, with ship movements severely limited in the Strait of Hormuz.
“It is an understatement to say it is complex, with the uncertainty the biggest issue. Anything in the fruit business needs certainty so we can make decisions and move on. There is currently no route to the market. Costs have tripled, and risks have now increased.
“Shipping to the Middle East has increased to US$10 000 [around R166 000] per container. Even if the war ends immediately and prices drop, who will cover the increased costs?”
He added that some Middle Eastern governments have introduced price ceilings to protect food security, with Oman imposing heavy fines on offenders.
“Because of this ceiling, you can’t sell the fruit for more, even if costs have clearly increased,” Ferreira said.
Produce supply becoming less stable
Kashif Shahzad, head of procurement at Global Star, a Saudi Arabia-based importer and distributor of fresh produce across the Middle East, said that during the first two weeks of Iran’s retaliatory attacks on Gulf countries, they were able to get some supply to other markets in the region.
However, he added, things are changing rapidly as the war continues. “The Saudi market was quite stable compared with other Gulf states, except Oman, which is affected due to its position before the Strait of Hormuz. Some shipments are also being redirected to Khorfakkan and Fujairah ports in the United Arab Emirates.
“However, this stability may not last, as most shipping lines have already refused to load cargo destined for those affected areas.”
Produce prices rising sharply
Shahzad said that as supply begins to dwindle due to shipping delays, prices are rapidly increasing in his region.
“Prices have increased crazily, as movement of the fruit is limited. Naturally, costs will increase, too. Shipping lines have already imposed war surcharges, and domestic transportation will also add to the final landed cost.
“This may result in a shortage, or at least a reduced supply to our markets, mainly due to rising prices.”
The market selling price for South African Royal Gala apples in week 11 this year was US$38,67 (R642) per carton, up 24% from 2025 and 49% from the same time in 2024.
In weeks nine and 10, prices for other fruit in the Middle East also rose sharply. White seedless table grapes from South Africa increased by 36,2% to US$25,67 (R426) per carton, while red plums rose by 47,2% to US$16,40 (R272) in week 10.
Few alternative options
According to Ferreira, diverting produce to alternative markets is not easy and brings other complications.
“Our shipments are on the East; they can’t reach the Red Sea. Some exporters can divert fruit to other markets in Asia, such as Malaysia, Singapore, and Bangladesh. However, this is causing oversupply and reduced prices in those markets,” he explained.
Shahzad added: “We hope things return to normal soon, although it seems it may take some time.”
