For other South Africans living in urban areas or in other parts for South Africa, the scale of the drought only became clear towards the end of February, when the Crop Estimates Committee released its first report of the season. It stated that South Africa’s total maize harvest is likely to be a third down on last year’s figure – under 10 million tons.
Every South African will be affected, and no one need explain what the national impact will be. As the harvest comes in, and carry-over stocks from the previous season become depleted, food prices will rise. Jannie de Villiers of Grain SA has warned that consumers will pay much more for basic foodstuffs, but not as much as individual farmers and rural communities in those regions hit by drought.
For many of these producers and the affected towns, the drought is a financial disaster, the consequences of which will be felt for years and remembered for decades. And inevitably, some, especially amongst the poor, will be harder hit than others. The situation reminds me of a prolonged drought in the late 1990s in the Overberg, where I grew up. Although the drought was widespread, its severity varied. Some farmers managed to achieve record harvests, while others were forced to sell their family farms.
The effects of such a disaster on individual farmers, their families and employees are almost unimaginable, especially by those who have never experienced anything similar. The communities of most rural South African towns rely heavily for their economic survival on the success of the local farming industry. A good harvest translates into business for the town: farm infrastructure is upgraded, bakkies and tractors are purchased, and luxuries are bought.
This year, in many towns in the summer production region, motor dealers will watch their stock gathering dust. Co-ops will notice a drastic dip in spending which will continue into next year as farmers struggle to find capital to finance the next planting season. This trickle-down effect will inevitably affect the local hairdresser, grocer, and restaurant.
According to Agri SA consultant Kosie van Zyl, the process to get disaster areas declared has began, and official surveys will start soon. The relevant government departments should note: we are bound up as South Africans in this disaster, and government response should reflect this unequivocally. Nobody wins in a situation like this.
The editor, Alita van der Walt, is in Europe on an agribusiness tour.
