Increased possibility for an El Niño in SA

Increased possibility for an El Niño in SA

According to Cobus Olivier, prediction scientist at Weather SA, observations showed that the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) was gradually shifting from a cool to warm phase.

It was, however, still expected to remain within the neutral phase for the first half of 2017. Olivier added that it was, at this stage, still too early to predict its impact on the next Southern Africa summer season.

“Historically, it usually has a significant negative impact on summer rainfall,” Olivier said.

As the summer season came to an end, above average rainfall conditions for the summer rainfall region were diminishing. Olivier said in a statement that isolated showers could, nevertheless, still occur.

Some forecasting systems indicated a likelihood of above average rainfall for late autumn to mid-winter in the winter rainfall region.

However, there was a significant amount of uncertainty as these forecasting systems tended to provide questionable forecasts for the winter period.

The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) had been showing a tendency towards a negative phase since November 2016.

However, the system was hovering around the neutral mark at this stage, with a slight inclination to a positive phase during the next few weeks.