In 2022, world fisheries and aquaculture production reached 186 million tons of aquatic animals, and this is expected to increase an additional 10% to reach 205 million tons by 2032. Despite this increase, the rate and absolute level of growth are projected to decline compared with the 22% growth (33 million tons) achieved during the previous decade (2012 to 2022).

Most of the current decade (2022 to 2032) increase will come from aquaculture, expected to break the 100 million tons threshold for the first time in 2027, reaching 111 million tons in 2032, with an overall growth of 17% or nearly 16 million tons compared with 2022.

The continuous increase in aquaculture production projected over the period 2022 to 2032 will occur at an average annual growth rate of 1,6%, less than half the 4% rate observed in 2012 to 2022.

This reduced growth rate will depend on several factors such as wider adoption and enforcement of environmental regulations; reduced availability of water (both quality and quantity) and suitable aquaculture sites; increasing impact of aquatic animal diseases in intensive aquaculture; and reduced productivity gains.

Impact of policies

Chinese policies are expected to account significantly for the overall reduced growth.

Initiated in 2016, these policies aim to continue integrating environmental considerations in aquaculture production to improve its sustainability by promoting the adoption of ecologically sound technological innovations and water recycling; not extending the areas dedicated to aquaculture; and reducing the use of antibiotics in production.

All these actions will cause an initial capacity reduction, followed by faster growth.

Despite these changes, China will remain the world’s leading aquaculture producer, with an expected increase of 14% (or about 8 million tons) by 2032, nearly half the increase in 2012 to 2022 (15 million tons or 39%). China’s contribution to world aquaculture production in 2032 is projected to reach 55% (compared with 56% in 2022).

It will however contribute 83% of the total Chinese fisheries and aquaculture production, increasing from 80% in 2022.

The resource rent tax on salmon and trout farming introduced by Norway in 2023 may decrease the farming profitability of these species and affect their future production, as Norway is the largest producer in the world of Atlantic salmon.

The decadal projection assumes that the tax is eliminated in 2026, with Norway increasing its aquaculture output by 7% up to 2032. If the tax remains, Norwegian aquaculture production would decrease by about 9% by 2032.

Aquaculture on the rise in Africa

The projected deceleration of China’s aquaculture production will be partially compensated for by a production increase in other countries. Growth of aquaculture production is projected for all continents, except Europe, where a 1% decline is expected.

By 2032, the sector is projected to expand most in Africa (up 21% from 2022), Asia (up 18%), Oceania (up 17%) and Latin America and the Caribbean (up 14%). Aquaculture growth in Africa will result from the additional farming capacity installed in recent years, following national policies promoting aquaculture and rising local demand.

However, this projected growth of aquaculture production in Africa will remain limited at slightly over 2,8 million tons in 2032, with the bulk of this (1,9 million tons) produced by Egypt.

Asian countries should continue to dominate the aquaculture sector in 2032, producing 89% of the world’s output of aquatic animals (up 88% in 2022) and generating more than 91% of the increase in production by 2032.

The share of farmed species in global fisheries and aquaculture production of aquatic animals is projected to grow from 51% in 2022 to 54% in 2032. Excluding China, the world share will grow from 35% in 2022 to 38% in 2032.

The role of aquaculture in total fisheries and aquaculture production will increase in all continents, except Northern America, where it will remain at around 11%, the lowest share among all major regions.

In 2032, these shares will reach 15% in Oceania (up from 13% in 2022), 22% in Africa (up from 18%), 21% in Europe (up from 20%), 26% in Latin America and the Caribbean (up from 25%) and 67% in Asia (up from 64%). Excluding China, growth in Asia will increase from 47% to 52%.

Farmed species

Production of all major groups of farmed species will continue to increase, but at uneven rates of growth across groups, consequently modifying the importance of different species.

In general, species needing large proportions of fishmeal and fish oil in their diets are projected to grow more slowly owing to expected higher prices and reduced availability of fishmeal. Carp is likely to remain the main group of species produced in 2032, but with a declining share in the total production volume.

Taxation in Norway (as mentioned above) is likely to slightly reduce the share of salmonoids in total production.

Capture fisheries is projected to increase by three million tons to reach about 94 million tons in South America, especially for anchoveta, with a resulting decrease in world capture fisheries production of about 2% in those years.

The overall increase in capture fisheries production by 2032 is expected to be driven by different factors, including increased catches in some fishing areas where stocks of certain species are recovering owing to improved resource management; growth in catches in waters of the few countries with under-fished resources, where new fishing opportunities exist or where fisheries management measures are less restrictive, including for species not subject to strict production quotas; technological improvements; and reduced discards and bycatch, enforced by changes in legislation or higher market prices (including for fishmeal and fish oil).

Similarly to aquaculture, China will remain the major producer of capture fisheries. Yet, its overall production should decline by 4% by 2032, as it continues implementing its environmental policies into the next decade, reducing domestic catches through enforcement of controls on licensing, reduction in the number of fishers and fishing vessels, and implementation of output controls.

However, the projected decline in domestic catches is expected to be compensated for by an increase in distant-water fleet catches.

Fishmeal and fish oil production

By 2032, production of both fishmeal and fish oil is projected to increase by, respectively, 9% and 12% compared with 2022, but the share of capture fisheries production reduced into fishmeal and fish oil should remain stable at around 19%.

Between 2022 and 2032, the proportion of total fishmeal obtained from fish by-products is projected to increase from 27% to 30%, while the proportion of total fish oil is projected to remain stable at about 57%. Peru and Chile will continue to be the top producers of, respectively, fishmeal and fish oil.

Consumption of seafood

Food remains the primary use for aquatic production, with most fisheries and aquaculture production of aquatic animals destined for human consumption. This share will grow from 89% in 2022 to 90% by 2032.

Overall, by 2032, aquatic foods for human consumption are projected to increase by 19 million tons compared with 2022, reaching 184 million tons, but expanding less rapidly than over the previous decade. This represents an overall increase of about 12%, compared with the 24% in 2012 to 2022.

This slowdown mainly reflects the reduction in availability of additional fisheries and aquaculture production, higher prices of aquatic foods in nominal terms, a deceleration in population growth, and saturated demand in some countries, particularly high-income countries, where aquatic food consumption is projected to show little growth.

In 2032, about 60% of the aquatic foods available for human consumption are expected to originate from aquaculture production, up from 57% in 2022. Trends in consumption will differ between countries and regions due to different dynamics in population, income, consumer preferences, and rapid urbanisation in many emerging economies.

In low-income countries where food represents a high share of household expenditure, changes in income and food prices will have a larger impact on consumption than in high-income countries.

Demand will also be stimulated by changes in dietary trends, with more variety of foods consumed, and a greater focus on better health, nutrition and diet, with aquatic food playing a key role in this regard.

Overall, growth in the demand for aquatic foods will stem mostly from Asian countries, which are expected to account for 78% of the increase in consumption by 2032, consuming 73% of the aquatic foods available in 2032 (compared with 72% in 2022).

Between 2022 and 2032, total apparent consumption of aquatic food is expected to increase in all regions, except in Europe, with higher growth rates projected in Africa (23%), Asia (13%), Latin America and the Caribbean (10%), Oceania (9%) and Northern America (8%).

Despite these regional trends, the overall tendencies in quantity and variety of aquatic foods consumed will vary among and within countries.

Per capita apparent consumption of aquatic animal foods is projected to reach 21,3kg in 2032, up from about 20,7kg in 2022. It will increase in all regions except Africa and Europe.

In Africa, which experienced a decline in per capita consumption in 2019 to 2022 (from 9,9kg to 9,4kg) due to the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, the expected increase in total supply of aquatic foods up to 2032 will not be sufficient to compensate for population growth, projected at over 25% between 2022 and 2032.

The decline will be mainly in sub-Saharan Africa, while in Northern Africa per capita consumption will marginally increase.

This projected decline in per capita consumption of aquatic foods in Africa, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, raises food security concerns because of the region’s high prevalence of undernourishment and the importance of aquatic proteins in total animal protein intake in many African countries.

This trend can only be modified through a substantial increase in the aquatic food supply to be obtained through increased production and imports.

Trade

Trade of aquatic products will continue to enhance the role of fisheries and aquaculture for economic development, world food supply and food security.

The expansion of trade in aquatic products will continue over the outlook period, bolstered by improvements in post-harvest technology and distribution channels that will support the expansion of the commercialisation of aquatic products.

Yet, trade of aquatic products is expected to grow at a slower pace (in volume) than in the previous decade, reflecting the slowdown in production growth, higher fisheries and aquaculture prices, which will restrain overall demand and consumption of aquatic species, and stronger domestic demand in some of the major producing and exporting countries such as China.

As a result, the share of aquatic products exported over the total fisheries and aquaculture production will decline from 38% in 2022 to 34% (or 30%, if excluding intra-EU trade) in 2032. The bulk of the growth in exports of aquatic foods will continue to originate from Asia, which will account for about 44% of the additional exported volume by 2032.

Asia’s share in total exports of aquatic products for human consumption will remain stable at about 50% in 2032. In quantity terms, China will continue to be the world’s biggest exporter of aquatic foods, followed by Vietnam and Norway.

The EU, the US, China and Japan will be the world’s primary importers, absorbing 50% of total imports for aquatic food consumption in 2032, compared with 52% in 2022.

Trade of fishmeal and fish oil is expected to increase by 4% and 11% respectively. Peru and Chile will continue to be the main exporters of fish oil, and Norway and the EU the main importers, in particular for aquaculture production of salmonoids.

Peru is also expected to remain the leading exporter of fishmeal, followed by the EU and Chile, with China the major importer.

Prices

After soaring in 2022, fisheries and aquaculture prices declined in 2023 and are expected to continue falling slightly in both nominal and real terms until 2025 through to 2027, before then increasing.

Overall, prices are expected to grow moderately in nominal terms from 2022 to 2032, driven on the demand side by improved income, population growth and higher meat prices, and on the supply side by marginal increase in capture fisheries production, slower growth in aquaculture production and cost pressure from crucial inputs such as feed, energy and fish oil.

With a growth of 7%, the average price of aquaculture products will rise more than that of captured products (when excluding aquatic products for non-food uses), which will grow by 5%.

Prices of farmed aquatic species will also increase owing to higher fishmeal and fish oil prices, both of which are expected to rise by 12% by 2032. High feed prices could also influence the composition of farmed species, shifting towards species requiring less feed, cheaper feed or no feed at all.

Higher prices at production level, coupled with high demand for aquatic foods, will stimulate an estimated 5% growth in the average price of internationally traded aquatic products by 2032 relative to 2022. In real terms, it is assumed that all prices will decline over the projection period, while remaining relatively high.

For individual aquatic products, price volatility could be more pronounced due to fluctuations in supply or demand. Moreover, because aquaculture is expected to represent a higher share of world fisheries and aquaculture supply, it could have a stronger impact on price formation in national and international markets of aquatic products.

Major decreases are expected for capture fisheries (excluding non-food uses) and traded products (each declining by 16%), as well as for aquaculture (15%).

Average prices of fish oil and fishmeal are projected to decrease by, respectively, 11% and 10%. However, since both prices have been at historically high levels, by 2032 fishmeal prices will still be 33% higher than in 2005, when major price increases began.

This situation is even more pronounced for fish oil, where the real price in 2032 is expected to be over 160% higher than in 2005.

Considered together, and all else remaining equal, this suggests that converting capture fisheries and fish waste to fishmeal and fish oil will remain a lucrative activity over the period projected.

Source: FAO. 2024. The State of World Fisheries and Aquaculture 2024 – Blue Transformation in action. Rome. doi.org/10.4060/cd0683en.