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Will SA have enough wheat for the year ahead B

South Africa is heading into the 2026/27 season with strong grain supplies, but wheat tells a more complicated story.

Will SA have enough wheat for the year ahead B

In this episode of AgriView with Wandile, Wandile Sihlobo unpacks the latest Crop Estimate Committee figures, including South Africa’s record 17.5 million-tonne maize crop and an overall grain harvest of more than 21 million tonnes.

But while the broader grain outlook remains encouraging, wheat production is expected to decline by 5% to around 1.8 million tonnes.

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So, will South Africa have enough wheat for the year ahead? Wandile explains why imports of around 2 million tonnes will be needed, whether sufficient wheat is available on international markets, and how disruptions in the Black Sea region are influencing global wheat prices.

He also looks at the pressures facing Western Cape wheat farmers, from higher input costs and dry conditions to declining planted area, and explains why South Africa’s reliance on wheat imports is not a sign that the country is no longer a net agricultural exporter.

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Wandile Sihlobo
WANDILE SIHLOBO is chief economist of the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa (Agbiz) and a member of President Cyril Ramaphosa’s Economic Advisory Council as well as the Advisory Panel on Land Reform and Agriculture
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