Better rainfall forecast for winter

As winter approaches, weather forecast models are showing a gradual weakening of the El Niño system that has caused severe drought conditions across much of southern Africa, according to Cobus Olivier of the SA Weather Service.

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However, forecasts in the March 2016 Seasonal Climate Watch showed a marked disparity in rainfall and temperature.

“There is growing uncertainty in weather forecasts about rainfall and temperatures in the long term, and medium- and shorter-range weather forecasts should consequently be monitored regularly,” said Olivier.

Despite this, indications are that above-normal rainfall can be expected during winter over most parts of the country.

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In addition, above-normal minimum and maximum temperatures are expected across the country through autumn towards early winter.

“However, there is high probability for below-normal minimum temperatures during the mid-winter season,” said Olivier.