ABSA Grain Trends report – April

The Absa-Agri Trend’s report for April offers an analytical breakdown of livestock and commodity prices.

To keep its readers informed, Farmer’s Weekly offers a brief look into these trends.

Market analysis Part 1 discussed meat trends; Part 2 will discuss grain trends, and Part 3 will discuss vegetable and fruit trends.

Important terms:

  • Bullish: an upturning market
  • Bearish: a down turning market

Maize 

Outlook
Internationally, the maize price is expected to remain bearish in the medium-term, due to ample supplies and anticipated planted acres. The market could, however, receive support if rain delays plantings.

Locally, the stronger rand and the upcoming harvest continue to weigh on the market.

Wheat 

Outlook
Internationally, the wheat market is expected to remain bearish due to ample supplies.
Locally, the higher import tariff, as a result of the weakened rand, will support prices.

Soybean 

International
Brazilian soybean prices for delivery CIF Rotterdam traded at US$390/t, compared to $409/t a year earlier.
Soya meal from Argentina CIF Rotterdam traded at USA$352/t, compared to US$392/t a year earlier.

Outlook
Internationally, the US’ imminent correction in the meal/oil spread may support meal prices, however, the weak cash meal market will make a meal rally hard to sustain.
Locally, as a result of the harvesting season nearing, the soya price is anticipated to soften.