Agricultural machinery price changes

Based on information provided by Reserve Bank, AGFACTS has tracked the year-on-year agricultural machinery price changes from January 1996 to the present.

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The machinery includes tractors, grain-harvesting equipment and attachments, hay and forage machinery and implements, such as planters, fertiliser spreaders and spraying equipment.

As can be seen from the graph, where the data has been ‘smoothed’ by using three-month moving averages, the year-on-year price changes for most of the equipment categories were in negative territory for 2004, 2005 and through to early 2006.

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During 2006 and the first half of 2007 price changes increased, then fell back during the second half of 2007.

After the two sharp depreciations in the value of the rand during 2008, year-on-year price change trends for all four agricultural equipment categories increased sharply and then reduced sharply.

Except for some stability in prices during 2012, there has been an increase in the level of year-on-year prices since 2010.

The table below summarises how the individual year-on-year price changes have moved over the past two months for the four classes of agricultural machinery, together with the overall figure. The figures have been ‘smoothed’ by using the three-month moving average in each case.

Equipment Category Year-on-year Change, %
November 2013 December 2013
Tractors 18.3                        18.6 up
Combine Harvesters 7.0                        6.8 down
hay and Forage Equipment 14.9                        15.2 up
Implements 13.5                        13.0 down
Overall 14.9                   14.9 no change

As can be seen, in December 2012, year-on-year price changes in all equipment categories were well down, with the overall price change dropping significantly to 3,9% and then to 3%.

The most recent devaluation in the value of the rand is now starting to have a significant adverse effect on year-on-year price changes. The short term trend in year-on-year price changes is likely to continue upwards, said AGFACTS.

Latest tractor sales
The 551 units sold in SA in November 2013 were three units lower than the 554 units sold in November last year, said AGFACTS.

The latest 12-month moving total of tractor sales of 7 497 units is marginally down on the October figure of 7 500 units. The latest AGFACTS Tractor Sales Index figure is now 0,973, marginally up on the October figure of 0.967. High and low forecasts for 2013 from the AGFACTS prediction model are now 7 546 and 7 535 units, respectively. The estimate based on the AGFACTS Tractor Sales Index currently predicts 2013 sales of 7 473 units.