Although South Africa’s agriculture sector is in recovery mode, it remains uneven, as some industries, particularly livestock, are facing challenges.
This was according to Wandile Sihlobo, chief economist at Agbiz, in reaction to the release of Statistics South Africa’s quarterly gross domestic product (GDP) report on Tuesday.
Production in the agriculture, forestry, and fishing industries increased by 15,8% in the first quarter (Q1) of 2025, with the overall economy growing by 0,1%. According to the report, the GDP would have contracted by 0,3% without the boost from agriculture.
“On the downside, the one area that remains a concern is the livestock industry, primarily due to the recent outbreak of FMD. We have already seen various trading partners temporarily banning South Africa’s beef exports due to the outbreak,” Sihlobo said.
He added that the expansion in production was primarily due to the improved performance of certain field crops and the horticulture industries. This positive trend was expected to continue this year.
“The production data at farm level remains encouraging. We are having an excellent summer grains and oilseeds season, with the latest production forecasts by the Crop Estimates Committee suggesting a harvest of 17,98 million tons. Favourable rains and decent area plantings support this.
“South African sugar production for the 2024/25 production season is forecast to recover by 7% year-on-year. This is also due to favourable weather conditions and the availability of sufficient water for irrigation,” Sihlobo said.
“We have also received encouraging production data from South Africa Wine and Vinpro, forecasting South Africa’s wine grape harvest at 1,244 million tons, up 11% from the exceptionally poor harvest of 2024.
“In poultry production, the moderating prices of maize and soya bean should help the industry in its ongoing recovery,” he added.
Dawie Maree, head of agriculture information and marketing at FNB, also offered a word of caution.
Speaking to Farmer’s Weekly, he said comparing two quarters directly could be misleading.
“Agriculture is seasonal, and no two quarters are same,’ he said, adding that even a month’s delay in rainfall can significantly affect the output in one quarter.
However, he said he remained positive that agriculture would continue to grow in 2025.
“The current summer grain season looks better than last year. Although the harvest started late and faced some challenges due to wet conditions, crop estimates still show a 16% increase in grain production compared with last year,” Maree explained.
“The horticultural industries have performed better, with improved crops for table grapes and wine grapes. Forecasts for the current citrus crop are also very positive.
“There was a good recovery in the poultry industry, with moderating feed prices and reduced import competition due to bird flu outbreaks in Brazil.”
Meanwhile, Theo de Jager, executive director of the Southern African Agri Initiative, said the figures were looking better this year after last year’s poor harvests, as well as low grain and export figures.
“The Port of Cape Town is handling 28% more cargo so far this year. This year, the fruit farmers are doing well, and exports like citrus are achieving high volumes. Our grain harvest is 20% higher than last year, due to favourable weather conditions, where we had too much, rather than too little rain. We do, however, expect the outbreak of FMD to be a blow to livestock farmers.”
