On 1 September, the South African Weather Service (SAWS) confirmed that the current El Niño is strong and likely to strengthen further during spring. Forecasts indicate that sea surface temperatures in the east-central tropical Pacific could be more than 3°C above average.
In South Africa, below-normal rainfall is likely across most of the country from October to December 2026, with above-normal temperatures also expected. A similar broad pattern is indicated for November to January 2027.
After the Thirty-Third Southern Africa Climate Outlook Forum, held in Namibia in late August, the Southern African Development Community (SADC) released an outlook on 28 August that broadly aligned with the SAWS forecast, favouring below-normal rainfall across most of South Africa from October to December. During January to March 2027, the outlook indicates drier conditions over parts of the country.
What happened during previous very strong El Niños?
The SAWS has identified 14 El Niño events since 1979. Five were classified as weak, five as moderate, one as strong, and three as very strong.
The very strong events occurred in 1982/83, 1997/98, and 2015/16. Their rainfall outcomes for South Africa were not the same.
The 1982/83 and 2015/16 events coincided with widespread drought. However, during the 1997/98 event, parts of the country’s summer rainfall region received slightly above-normal rainfall.
The comparison illustrates an important point for the 2026/27 event: El Niño changes the probability of certain seasonal conditions, but its strength alone does not determine South Africa’s rainfall outcome.
El Niño is one of three phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a global climate phenomenon. The other two phases are La Niña and ENSO-neutral. ENSO is one of several influences on Southern African rainfall. The SADC notes that other global and regional climate drivers, including the Indian Ocean Dipole, will contribute to how the season develops.
Rainfall totals tell only part of the story
For agriculture, the total amount of rain recorded over a summer is only one measure of seasonal conditions.
The onset and distribution of rainfall, the length of dry spells, and when the rainy season ends can all influence crop and veld performance.
Therefore, a broad seasonal category such as ‘below normal’ cannot describe exactly what will happen during each week of the season or on every farm.
Temperature matters, too
Another consistent feature of the current outlook is temperature. Both the SAWS and the SADC favour above-normal temperatures, with the SAWS forecasting such temperatures over much of South Africa and the SADC across most of the region.
Higher temperatures can increase evaporation and water demand. As the season develops, rainfall therefore needs to be considered together with temperature, soil moisture, and available stored water.
What should farmers watch next?
At this stage, the practical response is to use the El Niño outlook as one layer of information rather than as a farm-level outcome.
Farmers can track whether monthly and seasonal forecasts strengthen, weaken, or shift geographically, while also monitoring rainfall onset and distribution, dry-spell duration, and temperature.
As rainfall is recorded, soil moisture, dam and borehole levels, veld conditions, and crop development will provide increasingly farm-specific information.
The closer a farmer gets to making a production decision, the more useful it becomes to combine the broad seasonal outlook with shorter-range forecasts and conditions observed on the farm.
Government response
The changing outlook has also prompted official agricultural advisories.
On 2 September, the Department of Agriculture (DoA) noted that above-normal rainfall during the 2025/26 summer season had improved dam levels and soil moisture across most summer rainfall areas.
This provides useful context for the start of the new season, although winter rainfall areas have experienced rainfall shortages.
The DoA advised producers to continue following SAWS updates and outlined measures relating to soil-moisture conservation, planting windows, cultivar choice, water use, veld carrying capacity, grazing management, and livestock water.
It added that it would continue monitoring conditions and issuing monthly advisories and daily extreme-weather warnings.
The 2026/27 outlook is therefore a starting point, not a final description of the season. Over the coming months, the broad climate signals can increasingly be tested against what is actually happening in South Africa’s production regions and on individual farms.
Sources:
- South African Weather Service statement on the 2026/27 El Niño, 1 September 2026, SAWS
- SADC Outlook Favours Drier Conditions Across Much of Southern Africa During the 2026/27 Rainy Season, 28 August 2026, Southern African Development Community
- SAWS historical analysis of 14 El Niño events since 1979
- El Niño Advisory, 2 September 2026, Department of Agriculture
