The outbreaks near Greytown and Nottingham Road involved dairy herds that had been vaccinated with the Aftodoll oil-based vaccine in March. Nonetheless, the cattle contracted FMD, with neighbouring unvaccinated cattle believed to be the source of exposure.
For many in the dairy industry, the outbreaks are not being viewed as vaccine failure but rather as evidence that isolated vaccination of commercial herds cannot work while surrounding cattle populations remain unvaccinated.
“These cases are not proof that the vaccine has failed. They are proof that the plan has failed,” Andrew Morphew told Farmer’s Weekly.
Tom Turner, a dairy farmer from Nottingham Road milking 1 350 cows, vaccinated 2 770 cattle on 13 March under private veterinary supervision. The first signs of FMD infection appeared in his dry cow herd on 8 May, including mouth lesions and blisters on the teats.
Critically, he said neighbouring beef and smallholder cattle had not been vaccinated, and many are already infected.
“All contiguous neighbours are beef farmers or smallholder[s]. None [of their cattle] have been vaccinated and most are positive for FMD,” Turner said.
The situation has reignited debate around what Morphew described as “vaccinated islands”: vaccinated farms surrounded by a wider environment where the virus continues to circulate.
“The problem with vaccinated islands is that the ‘sea’ between them is still full of virus,” he added.
Jane Holliday, director and dairy consultant at Intelact South Africa, said the outbreaks are deeply concerning but not unexpected.
“Neighbouring beef herds haven’t been vaccinated, and there haven’t been any booster shots [for vaccinated dairy cattle],” she explained, describing the current approach as a “weak, delayed, irresponsible, and unscientific strategy”.
Fragmented vaccine rollout under fire
These outbreaks have also placed renewed focus on Minister of Agriculture John Steenhuisen’s repeated assurances that vaccines would not be distributed “willy nilly” to farmers. Yet critics argue that the current voluntary rollout has itself become a haphazard system, with some herds vaccinated while neighbouring cattle remain entirely exposed.
Morphew argues that FMD cannot be controlled “one farm at a time”, as the virus spreads through fence lines, roads, labour networks, communal grazing, and neighbouring livestock systems.
Under the present scheme, vaccination is occurring unevenly across districts and over extended periods, creating what industry sources describe as “patchwork immunity” rather than a solid wall of protection.
“Speed × coverage = herd immunity. If either one is missing, you do not have herd immunity. You have statistics,” Morphew said.
Holliday agreed that simultaneous vaccination across entire disease areas is essential. “There is no immunity to FMD. All animals in an area need to be vaccinated, and booster [shots] needs to be given on time,” she said.
The financial and operational risks for dairy farmers are severe. Turner said the infected animals are in pain and receiving symptomatic treatment under veterinary supervision, while Holliday warned that outbreaks could trigger mastitis, lameness, milk losses, rising veterinary costs, and eventually even bankruptcy.
Both Turner and Holliday argued that the state cannot manage the scale of the vaccination campaign without far greater private-sector involvement.
“The state cannot do this without allowing the private sector to be involved in the sourcing, distribution, and administering of vaccines. There is no alternative,” Turner said.
Argentina’s network, SA’s bottleneck
The outbreaks have also renewed scrutiny of Steenhuisen’s claim that South Africa is following the Argentine model for FMD control.
According to Morphew, Argentina centralised vaccination policy and oversight but decentralised execution through private manufacturers, producer organisations, and veterinarians. South Africa, by contrast, has centralised vaccine procurement and distribution through state-controlled channels, with rollout occurring sequentially over long periods.
“Argentina built a network. South Africa built a bottleneck,” he said.
He argued that Argentina’s success depends on tightly synchronised vaccination windows covering entire livestock populations simultaneously, whereas South Africa’s rolling voluntary campaign leaves permanent gaps for the virus to exploit.
“Argentina vaccinates populations. South Africa is vaccinating individuals,” Morphew concluded.
