Although there are a few cold fronts predicted for the Western Cape this winter, there should be no high hopes that it will be enough to break the continuing drought.
This is according to Johan van den Berg, manager specialised crop insurance at Santam.
Van den Berg said there is still uncertainty around the rain for the Western Cape.
“Short- and medium-term forecasts indicate that light rains can be expected in May, with two or three reasonable cold fronts in June and July. There should not be any high expectations regarding these fronts as they are likely to be average or below average in strength.
“Long-term forecasting indicates that there is still a possibility that the current drought will not be broken quickly. However, there will be some rainfall episodes that may result in some short-term relief,” he said.
From a grain-production point of view, Van den Berg believes there is a very high risk.
“Although rain has occurred over some parts of the province during planting season, groundwater levels are very low and much more rain is needed to just get back to normal levels again.”
He added that a good harvest could only be realised if frequent or heavy rain fell, which would provide groundwater supplementation.
“The recent rain we received is far too little to be an indication of agricultural conditions for the winter ahead. It is important for farmers to consider whether grain production is still profitable, given the risk,” he said.
