In world terms South Africa is the 11th highest emitter of greenhouse gas. Population and gross domestic product place us higher. At the recent Climate Change Summit between 3 and 6 March, government and various other bodies shared their views on what needs to be done to reduce the effects of climate change. Glenneis Erasmus and Sharon Götte report.
Strategies are urgently needed to reduce the impact of climate change on agriculture, emphasised roleplayers at the Climate Change Summit recently held in Pretoria.
The summit aimed to lay a foundation for a National Climate Change Response Policy and ensure all stakeholders are clear in their roles and responsibilities in shaping the policy, which should come into effect by 2012.
President Kgalema Motlanthe said climate change is at the top of government’s agenda due to its impact on the economy. “For South Africa the climate-change challenge isn’t only about climate stabilisation, but ultimately also about combating poverty and ensuring livelihoods, energy security and sustainable development,” he said.
A bleak outlook
Jerry Vilakazi of Business Unity South Africa (BUSA) emphasised the importance of an agricultural strategy to offset climate-change risks. Such strategies should include methods to reduce and act on climate-change vulnerability.
“The redistribution of rainfall patterns could severely affect the availability of water resources, and agriculture, which in turn could negatively affect food security,” said Vilakazi. “At the same time the prevalence of malaria-carrying mosquitos may render current malaria-control programmes obsolete, requiring significant additional resources.”
As a result of climate change both South Africa’s summer and winter rainfall regions face challenges to agricultural production by 2050.
Winter rainfall agriculture faces significant threats due to projected increasing water shortages, which would increase competition with urban waterusers, reduce yield and increase yield variability in irrigated and rain-fed crops. More heat stress will reduce the productivity of livestock and perennial and annual crops, especially chill unit-dependent deciduous fruit.
Net water requirements for crops in the summer rainfall region are projected to increase by 10% to 30% throughout southern Africa by 2050.
A 2°C temperature increase is projected to reduce profits by around R500/ha across the highveld maize region, but carbon dioxide fertilisation may mitigate this loss almost completely.
Dr Emma Archer, of the Department of Climate Change, Natural Resources and Ecosystems for the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR), echoed these concerns. Changing temperatures in frost or heat units could devastate agricultural production.
Climate change will also cause yield shifts in geographic production areas and pest and disease distribution. All of these have to be managed to reduce the impact climate change would have on food security, livelihoods and international trade.
Deputy general secretary of Cosatu Bheki Ntshalintshali said drought, resource depletion and floods aggravated already critical social and economic situations. Resource depletion also increases unemployment, forcing migration, reducing human resources and endangering rural economies.
Standing together
The general consensus was action is needed as soon as possible. “We owe it to millions of people directly affected, small-scale farmers who have to deal with climate uncertainty, small exporters and large industries which have to meet the requirements of markets which are carbon sensitive,” said Motlanthe.
Alf Wills of the Department of Environmental Affairs and Tourism said there’s increased pressure on South Africa to commit to carbon emissions reduction targets, as we’re one of the least energy-efficient countries in the world. If we don’t cut carbon emissions certain countries could close markets to us. No one disputes developed countries carry the bulk of responsibility for cumulative historical emissions since the industrial revolution. Similarly, no one disputes emissions from developing countries are growing rapidly.
“The key is to balance sharing the carbon space by affording developing countries a fair chance in the development space,” said Van Schalkwyk. “We draw the line when some developed countries argue the developing world should help them carry their carbon burden.
“It’s like developed countries inviting devloping countries to dinner, but only for dessert, then saying ‘let’s split the bill.’ We will not split the bill.”
President Kgalema Motlanthe
“Africa is one of the regions least responsible for climate change, yet it’s the most affected and is also the least able afford costs of adaptation,” observes President Motlanthe.
“According to a report by Nigerian scientist Anthony Nyong another 100 million people will go hungry by the year 2050, due to rising temperatures and lower rainfall. The South African government has agreed to a strategic policy framework for the country’s emissions, to peak between 2020 and 2025, stabilise for a decade and decline towards mid-century.
“We’ve also made clear our intention to put an escalating price on carbon, through market mechanisms such as a carbon tax and other regulatory instruments.”
Minister of Water Affairs and Forestry Lindiwe Hendricks
“Climate change has serious implications for our water resources and as a water stressed country, any threat to these must be considered serious,” warned Hendricks. “We will need to adapt to changes in rainfall patterns in the way we store, transfer and use water.
“On the agricultural side specific actions could focus on modifying tilling practices, integrating catchment areas, adopting appropriate technology and strengthening agricultural extension services. Key challenges are developing more drought- and flood-resistant crops and considering crop-switching strategies.”
Minister of Transport Jeff Radebe
“An effective transport system is key to reducing carbon dioxide emissions,” said Radebe. “Current projects to improve South Africa’s transport include the taxi recapitalisation process, which has resulted in 22 000 taxis scrapped so far, an R18 billion investment in rail transport, a R2,9 billion annual investment in buses and the R23 billion Gauteng road improvement scheme.” He said over the next few years the Department of Transport aims to address congestion, get people to travel differently and make road transport one of the “cleanest travelling methods”.
Minister of Minerals and Energy Buyelwa Sonjica
“Our energy-intensive industries play a critical role within our economy, which means we face particular challenges in greenhouse gas reduction if we are to succeed without reducing our productivity,” explained Sonjica. “Finance minister Trevor Manuel’s recent budget speech also provides tax incentives for investments in energy efficient technology.”
Manuel announced adjustment to excise duties on motor vehicles by introducing an additional one that takes into account the amount of carbon different vehicles emit and a charge of about R3 per incandescent light bulb. He also proposed companies investing in energy-efficient equipment should qualify for an additional allowance of up to 15%.
This is on top of last year’s announcement of a 2c/kWh levy on non-renewable sources of electricity, to be put into effect this year. These measures are the beginnings of carbon pricing within the South African economy.
Sonjica said South Africa is blessed with significant renewable energy potential. “We’re continuing with pilot projects around strong wind and solar which we hope to upscale at the right time,” said Sonjica.
“The well-developed sugar industry is in discussions with us with a view to playing a critical part in these efforts. Our forestry industry is a big part of the potential this country has to mitigate against climate change.”
Marthinus van Schalkwyk,
Minister of Environmental Affairs and Tourism
“Today climate change is among the top four priorities on government’s agenda, and that of nearly every major international meeting involving heads of state,” said Van Schalkwyk.
“Rather than action on climate change being a burden in the current global financial crisis, it holds opportunities for green investment and jobs. If we keep growing without a carbon constraint we face the threat of a border tax adjustments or trade sanctions from key trading partners and the destruction of thousands of jobs.“
Van Schalkwyk said in a “do-nothing” scenario, South Africa’s emissions will quadruple by 2050, rendering our economy and society extremely vulnerable.
“Industry must prepare itself for a new era in which mandatory reporting of greenhouse gas emissions will become part of the regulatory landscape,” said Van Schalkwyk. “The Department of Environmental Affairs and Tourism (DEAT) has initiated a process of developing greenhouse-gas measurement, monitoring and reporting regulations to shift our work from a voluntary to a mandatory level.”
