Maize prices, tonnage good, but input costs still a thorn

The Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) released its revised area and first production forecast for summer crops, as well as its final production estimate for winter cereals recently. The area planted to commercial maize is 2,74 million hectares, which is a 7,53% increase over the 2,55 million hectares planted last season. The anticipated commercial maize crop is up 48,5% over the previous season’s 7,12 million tons at 10,58 million tons. “This increase is due to the good prices for maize, but input costs have increased between 40% and 60%,” said Nico Hawkins, head of commodity services at Grain SA. “The local crop is closer to export parity now, but if the coming season is poor and maize approaches import parity, we’re looking at R3 116/t for white maize and R2 916/t for yellow maize – this’ll be very bad for consumers.” The breakdown of white and yellow maize is 1,71 million hectares and 1,03 million hectares respectively. This represents an increase of 5,37% for white maize and 11,33% for yellow maize. Because South Africa consumes about 8,5 million tons of maize annually, the rest will be exported. “Government is big on food security, so I doubt it’ll export maize at the expense of our own security,” said one CEC analyst. “This yield will hopefully help to lower food prices.” The Free State still grows the lion’s share with 1,12 million hectares, while North West and Mpumalanga have planted 780 000ha and 518 000ha respectively. Yield for white maize is estimated at 3,68t/ha and yellow maize 4,14t/ha. The production forecast for sunflower seeds shot up a massive 128,97% at 686 920t over last season’s 300 000t. The area planted to sunflower is estimated at 534 300ha, and farmers can expect a yield of 1,29t/ha. “foresee a better short-term future for sunflower than maize,” said Hawkins. The production estimate for soya beans, groundnuts and sorghum is 28 097t, 78 560t and 235 360t respectively. Dry beans have been estimated at 57 065t, which is 44,3% more than last season. The area planted to winter cereals has remained unchanged over the previous forecast, while the production estimate for wheat is 1,84 million tons – this translates to a yield of 2,92t/ha. Despite the high prices achieved for wheat, farmers planted 132 800ha less than the previous season. “The current marketing environment for wheat in is not very favourable, due to some problems farmers are experiencing with the grading system for wheat, the calculation of the transport differential, and the impact of weather conditions in some areas,” said the CEC analyst “It’s also been very dry in the Western Cape for the past two seasons.” M alting barley is expected to yield 2,97t/ ha at a forecast of 218 224t, while canola is expected to yield 1,2t/ha at an unchanged forecast of 39 840t. The forecast of sweet lupines is 13 300t at a yield of 0,95t/ha. – David Steynberg