Good rains in the interior could mean the end of the wait-and-see phase prevailing in agricultural business confidence, as reported in Farmer’s Weekly last month. With ongoing showers in the summer rainfall area, particularly North West and the Free State, soil moisture should be at workable levels again.
The Department of Agriculture’s Crop Estimates Committee has already warned the estimate it issued recently might change. Initial estimates for the 2007/08 season were 2,669 million hectares planted to maize. While it may be too early to speculate about plantings, Jim Rankin of the South African Agricultural Machinery Association said the rain was desperately needed by inland wheat farmers. “The fact that it generally rained quite well in the summer cropping areas will enable farmers to do their soil preparation in good time,” he said.
Rankin felt the rain would enhance underlying confidence in the sector. “Farmers will now be more optimistic in their decision-making and we expect this to reflect positively on machinery sales,” he explained. L ivestock consultant Peter Milton said there could well be a shortage of weaners, as many farmers who had been considering selling off their weaners will now hold on to them as their grazing recovers after the good rains. Milton said some feedlots had anticipated the good rains and had not put their heifers on hormone treatment. “They are now selling those heifers back to farmers who sold them at R15/kg to R20/kg in anticipation of a dry summer,” he explained. A t the time of going to print weaners were selling at about R12,20/kg. “But the price won’t stay there,” Milton warned. “If it rains the weaner price always goes up.”
He agreed that if the early spring rains were an indication of a wet summer and a good maize crop, weaners could well become scarce next year. This happened after the 2005 harvest, when many farmers fed their weaners in the hope of offsetting low maize prices through beef production. But Grainvest trader Stephan van der Watt did not think that scenario would be repeated. “We expect a normal year and think only 2,7 million to 2,8 million hectares will be planted to maize this year. If this is the case, we will have a 1,4 million ton surplus after the harvest next year.” S uch a surplus, said Van der Watt, would not be significant enough to impact negatively on the maize price. However, he cautioned that farmers must think carefully about the summer grains they intend to plant. “Current prices offered for sunflower are excellent and farmers intending to plant sunflower instead of maize would be well advised to fix at least their input costs at these prices,” he commented, adding he did not expect prices to remain at the current high levels throughout the growing season. Van der Watt expected a significant number of traditional maize lands to be planted to soya and sunflower this season because of the good prices currently offered. This, coupled with a tougher financing environment due to the new credit act, would prevent maize surpluses like the one experienced in 2005 – even if the good early rains are followed by a wet summer. – Jasper Raats
Early rains in Free State
a promising start to summer season
The recent rains in the Free State and the promise of more later in the season are indications of an excellent season for both grain producers and cattle farmers in the province. Grain SA chairperson Neels Ferreira said moisture reserves in the summer-rainfall areas of South Africa had been depleted by the 2006/07 drought, and the recent rains would go a long way toward restoring the moisture balance. The rains that fell over most grain-producing areas would help to sustain crops during the traditional midsummer drought. Ferreira’s sentiments were shared by the vice-chairperson of the Red Meat Producers’ Organisation in the province, André Pretorius. He gave the example of more than 60mm falling between Lindley and Bethlehem so far this season, compared with a total of 180mm for the previous season. Areas in the Free State that had been affected by the disastrous fires would gain enormously from the rains, said Pretorius. The grazing would recover much faster in these areas because of nutrients released into the soil during the fires and the higher temperatures of burnt soils. Winter in the summer-rainfall area had, in effect, been shortened by a month by the early rains. This bodes well for the coming season, and red meat producers in the Free State can look forward to a positive 2007/08 season. – Annelie Coleman
