Summer crop yield up

Estimates for summer crops are continuing their upward trend. The fifth production forecast for the 2008/09 season, released by the Department of Agriculture’s Crop Estimates Committee, sets the expected commercial maize crop at 11,6 million tons. This is 89 450t or 0,78% higher than the previous forecast.
It’s still lower than the final 2007/08 crop of 12,7 million tons, but the total area estimate of 2,43 million hectares is 13,27% lower than last season. This means estimated yield for maize is 4,78t/ha, compared to around 4,54t/ha last year.
The production forecast for white maize is 6,8 million tons, which is 0,95% up from the last estimate, while yellow maize is up 0,53% on 4,8 million tons.
Despite the total crop estimate being lower than last year’s, economist and manager of industrial services at Grain SA, Nico Hawkins, said South Africa will have a surplus of maize. “Local consumption is only around 9 million tons,” he said.
According to head of PSG Commodities,
DF Fyver, the long-term trend is for a higher yield. “From the late 1980s until now, we’ve moved frombelow 2t/ha to more than 4t/ha,” he said.
Fyver said a reason for the higher estimate was the higher than expected crop in the North West, which was extrapolated to calculate the total estimate.
Maize harvested now will have the best yield potential, he said, adding that he’s confident the estimate is realistic.
“The market has already priced in the higher estimate,” he said. “The price dropped a little the day after the estimate was released, but it was restored by the next day.”
The production forecast for sunflower seed remained unchanged at 875 280t, owing to wet conditions which delayed harvesting. But Fyver said this wouldn’t influence the price because the main driver is import parity and not local production news.
The forecast for soya was set at 490 135t, which is 14,02% higher than the last forecast. Forecasts for groundnuts, sorghum and dry beans remained unchanged. – Drieka Burger