“It’s called Water Allocation Reform and its implicit purpose is to drive land reform by essentially withholding water licenses from commercial farmers, making it impossible for them to remain on their land,” he said. “Given that this is how it works in practice, even if it isn’t explicitly stated in the terms of reference, the program’s acronym, WAR, is unfortunate and wrong.”
He reiterated the message that resulted in his 2008 suspension that South Africa is in the grip of a water crisis that will have dire social consequences if not addressed. He said that in 2012/13 the country’s water problems would be exacerbated by a “scientifically verifiable” sunspot maximum event, and the “mother of El Niños”, a combination which could trigger a “collapse”.
“In the euphoria of our new democracy we forgot we’re a drought-prone country,” he said. “Now the first signs of drought are impacting the southern cape. Throughout the country we’ve outstripped our supply of readily available water and the result is a structural deficit much like a bank overdraft—we’re borrowing money we’re going to have to pay back.”Dr Turton said the country was on the cusp of a transition from “business as usual”, in terms of water management, to having to adapt or face a “crash and burn scenario”.
He said the country’s previous transition had been from a natural supply sufficient for local needs, to an era in which the needs of the growing economy outstripped it. “During this time, which I call our hydraulic mission, our engineers took the water over mountains and through watersheds like you can’t imagine,” he said. “But we’ve now stretched the elastic band as far as we can. We’ve arrived at the point of peak water.” He added that South Africa’s “business as usual” approach to water management had destroyed ecosystems to a point where water issues have become inextricably intertwined with societal problems.
“As a result, government’s primary projective has become managing conflict and social instability rather than solving the water issues at root,” he said. One of their strategies is to reallocate water away from agriculture, but this risks losing national food security, which also has implications for social instability. “The recent rioting in Mozambique was about food security, energy security and water security, exactly the thing I predicted here two years ago, exactly the point people were uncomfortable about,” he said.
South Africa also faces a shortage in the technical skills needed to overcome the water problems. “Our human capacity to solve the water crisis has been destroyed by the ANC’s policy of cadre deployment,” he said.Dr Turner sketched three scenarios. “If we carry on as normal we face the ‘Crash and Burn’ scenario – a decline in human health, a scared and angry population and foreign disinvestment.
If we make some adjustments in technologies and solutions, and develop a storage model different to dams and reservoirs, the economy and health might stabilise in time – the ‘Bumpy Road’ scenario. “The Tall Trees scenario would see true presidential leadership in regard to these challenges, a water, food and energy summit perhaps, that would in turn result in a new strategic plan with high-level buy in and the economy thriving as innovation is unleashed,” he said. However, water is not a national priority at present, said Dr Truton.
