South Africa’s 2025/26 summer grain and oilseed season is shaping up to be another strong one. According to the latest estimates from the Crop Estimates Committee, total production could reach around 19.8 million tonnes, only slightly down from the record-breaking 2024/25 season. With favourable rainfall across key production regions, crops such as maize, soybeans, sunflower seed, sorghum and groundnuts are generally in good condition.
While floods in the north and dry spells in parts of the Eastern Cape created some concerns earlier in the season, these events have had limited impact on the core grain-producing areas. As a result, South Africa is still expected to produce a maize crop of about 16.1 million tonnes, comfortably above the long-term average. However, strong production locally and globally is creating a different challenge: oversupply.
Large harvests in regions like the Black Sea, the EU, the US and China have kept global grain prices under pressure, slowing South Africa’s export pace. With lower exports and sizeable carry-over stocks, domestic grain prices are likely to remain subdued. While this may tighten margins for grain farmers, it brings relief to livestock, poultry and feed industries, where maize and soybean prices have fallen sharply from last year’s levels.
For consumers, this could also help keep food price inflation contained in the months ahead. In this episode of AgriView, we unpack what these crop estimates mean for farmers, agribusiness and the broader food economy.
