Dr Frikkie Maré, CEO of the Red Meat Producers’ Organisation, said the impact of the halt on livestock exports from Namibia would depend on how the South African market responded.
“However, we must distinguish between an initial shock reaction due to fear of shortages, which will drive prices up very fast, and the longer-term market-adjusted price. While weaner calf imports make up only 2% of our market [2026 year-to-date], slaughter lambs represent 15%. The impact on mutton and lamb prices will thus be more severe.
“We must factor in consumer demand in South Africa, as it may cap prices if the meat doesn’t sell downstream in the value chain,” he told Farmer’s Weekly.
Maré explained that Namibian exports had long formed part of the local market under the Southern African Development Community Free Trade Agreement.
“Furthermore, due to the constant exports from Namibia, some of South Africa’s feedlots and abattoirs were built with the capacity to accommodate these imports and thus rely on the imported weaners and slaughter sheep.
“So far this year, 36 821 weaners and 417 808 sheep were exported to South Africa,” he added.
Nevertheless, according to Maré, South African imports of Namibian weaners have declined from 259 566 in 2024 to 36 821 so far this year, while sheep imports increased from 379 959 in 2024 to 417 808 over the same period. Weaners accounted for 9% of the South African market in 2024, compared with 2% so far this year, while sheep’s share increased from 12% to 15%.
Namibian red meat production is largely aimed at the export market. Thinus Pretorius, chairperson of the Namibia Agricultural Union, said two-thirds of Namibian red meat is exported.
“Namibia is the only African country simultaneously holding beef export access to the EU, US, China, and Norway markets. The confirmation of an FMD outbreak in the Karasburg State Veterinary District on 23 September 2026, and the consequent ban on the movement and export of all cloven-hooved animals in the country, came as a devastating blow to the country’s red meat industry. The outbreak caused an immediate suspension of red meat exports, to all export markets, including South Africa.
“The one positive that came to the fore after the outbreak is the effectiveness of our NamLITS traceability system. All the animals that came into contact with the livestock infected with FMD were traced in a matter of days, some of them hundreds of kilometres from the Karas district. All of them tested negative for the disease,” he said.
