This is despite South Africa technically in a recession, with a -0,7% decline in overall GDP.
According to Stats SA: “This is the first time since the fourth quarter of 2014 that the industry has shown any growth. A jump in production in field crops and horticultural products lifted the industry in the first quarter.
“This might be one of the first signs of recovery from one of the toughest droughts in recent history,” it states.
Wandile Sihlobo, Agbiz economist, said the sector’s growth is due to good summer rains resulting in increased activity in the sector, especially summer grains, oilseeds and horticulture. He added that the record harvest estimates forecast for maize and soya bean – 15,63-million
He added that the record harvest estimates forecast for maize and soya bean – 15,63-million tons and 1,23-million tons respectively – will largely reflect in the sector’s second quarter GDP numbers.
Sihlobo said summer grain and oilseed production in 2017 is set to reach 18,03 milliont – a 92% annual increase.
Sihlobo said dry conditions in the Western Cape continue, but that farmers have so far planted 90% of the intended 320 000 hectare wheat crop.
In the 6 June 2017 Agbiz market viewpoint analysis, he said the short-term weather reports forecast rainfall across the province, which will most likely improve soil moisture and benefit the crops.
“Having said that, there are still risks associated with the expected El Niño weather event towards the end of the year. This expected dryness casts a shadow over the winter wheat crop in the province, as predictions from international forecasters put the chance of an El Niño developing later this year at 50%,” he wrote.
Sihlobo said Agbiz expects the upward growth in the sector to continue for the rest of the year. He added that this optimism is reflected in the Agbiz/IDC Agribusiness Confidence Index, which has been positive for three consecutive quarters.
