According to the latest data released by Statistics South Africa (Stats SA), the April figure marks the highest inflation reading since August 2024, when headline inflation stood at 4,4%. Meanwhile, the consumer price index (CPI) rose by 1,1% month-on-month (m/m).
The main driver of the inflation jump was a dramatic rise in fuel prices in April, when the fuel index surged by 18,2% m/m, the sharpest monthly increase recorded since the current CPI series began in 2008.
Petrol prices increased by 15,2% m/m, with 93-octane rising to R23,25/ℓ, while diesel prices climbed by a staggering 35,4% to an average of R28,80/ℓ.
The higher fuel costs quickly filtered through to transport services. The passenger transport services index increased by 3,1% m/m, the largest monthly increase since July 2022. Airfares also spiked, with ticket prices rising by 24,5% in April following a 14,3% increase in March.
Food inflation offers some relief
Despite the fuel shock, consumers received some relief at supermarket level as food and non-alcoholic beverage inflation continued to ease.
Annual food inflation slowed to 2,9% in April from 3,6% in March, marking the third consecutive month of moderation.
Meat prices showed some of the most notable declines, with inflation easing from 11,6% in March to 9,4% in April. Beef mince inflation slowed sharply from 22,2% to 15,3%, while stewing beef dropped from 22,6% to 8,7%.
The cereal products category remained in deflation for a third consecutive month, with products such as white rice, maize meal, porridge, and bread flour cheaper than they were at the same time in 2025.
Meanwhile, dairy products, including milk, and eggs recorded a marginal annual increase of 0,1%, reversing the previous month’s contraction.
Broader economic concerns
The sharp rise in fuel prices is expected to raise concerns across the agriculture and transport sectors, where fuel and logistics remain key costs.
Historical data compiled by Stats SA show that the fuel price increases in April and May 2026 rank among the largest of the past five decades when adjusted for inflation.
Stats SA noted that South Africa had previously experienced severe fuel price shocks during periods of global geopolitical instability and currency weakness, including the Iranian Revolution in 1979, rand volatility in 1985, the Gulf War of the early 1990s, and the oil price spike of 2008.
Nonetheless, Agbiz chief economist Wandile Sihlobo said the agricultural supply outlook remains relatively positive despite the fuel shock.
“Overall, the fundamentals of agricultural supply remain solid and point to a moderation in consumer food price inflation. But the increases in fuel prices resulting from the conflict in the Middle East remain a key potential risk, potentially pushing food inflation higher later in the year,” he told Farmer’s Weekly.
Sihlobo noted that fuel accounts for a substantial share of food distribution costs and around 13% of grain farmers’ input costs.
“Farmers are price takers and can’t pass this cost on to consumers except by adjusting their planting decisions in the next season. However, that adjustment is not immediate. The immediate risk is the distribution costs of food products,” he explained.
He added that a forecast El Niño-related drought poses a medium-term risk to food inflation, although its impact will likely only emerge in 2027, as it will affect the next production season.
