It is the lowest annual rate in more than 16 years. The last lower reading was the 0,7% recorded in June 2010, according to Statistics South Africa.
Month-on-month, food and beverage prices declined by 0,2% between June and July. The moderation in food inflation contributed to the slowdown in annual headline consumer inflation from 5% in June to 4,3% in July. Lower fuel prices and more moderate municipal tariff increases also helped contain headline inflation.
Grain products were the largest downward driver within the food basket. Annual grain inflation was down 2%, meaning grain-product prices were, on average, 2% lower than in July 2025.
Month-on-month, maize meal prices fell by 3,1% in July, while macaroni declined by 0,7% and white bread by 0,6%. Record grain and oilseed harvests, together with high stock levels, have supported lower commodity prices.
Annual meat inflation slowed sharply from 5,1% in June to 1,5% in July. Several unprocessed beef products were cheaper than a year earlier. Stewing beef prices declined by 7,9% year-on-year, beef steak by 6,1% and beef mince by 5,8%. The Bureau for Food and Agricultural Policy (BFAP) attributes the moderation partly to improving beef supplies and slaughter volumes.
Dawie Roodt, chief economist at Efficient Group, cautioned that food inflation is typically volatile and that large swings are common. He said July’s sharp slowdown partly reflected a high statistical base, as food inflation had been high a year earlier. This was reinforced by falling prices, or only modest price increases during the current year.
Processed meat did not follow the same trend. Compared with July 2025, corned meat was 11,8% more expensive, meat patties 7,8%, russians 7,7%, and sausages 6,2%.
Annual inflation remained elevated for fish and seafood at 6,6%, non-alcoholic beverages at 5,3%, and oils and fats at 2,8%. Several fish products also recorded sharp month-on-month increases in July. Battered or crumbed fish portions rose by 3,5%, fish fingers by 2,3%, hake by 2,1% and canned fish, excluding tuna, by 2%.
Low food inflation does not necessarily mean that food is affordable. BFAP estimated that a nutritionally balanced food basket for a four-person household cost R3 965 in July. This was only R1,98 or 0,05%, more than in July 2025, and R25 or 0,6%, cheaper than in June.
Looking ahead, Roodt expects food inflation to initially remain flat, with a further slowdown also possible. Diesel and fertiliser costs could decline if the Middle East conflict ended, providing additional relief to producers and the food value chain.
However, he warns that weather conditions would become the most crucial factor within the next few months, particularly through the effect on grain production and prices.
