Speaking during the Agri in Conversation ‘Wheat at a crossroads’ discussion at Nampo Cape, held in Bredasdorp, Western Cape this week, panellists warned that falling profitability, drought, weak price formation and declining wheat hectares were steadily eroding the country’s production capacity.
South Africa already produced only around half of the wheat it consumes, while the area planted to wheat was at its lowest level in almost a century. The 2026 crop was estimated at 1,7625 million tons, 7,5% lower than in 2025, according to Grain SA.
Koos Blanckenberg, a grain farmer in the Swartland, said the current season illustrated how precarious production had become. Wheat farmers in the region needed yields of around 2,7t/ha to break even, yet some were unlikely to achieve even half of that following severe rainfall shortages.
After above-average rainfall in April and May, the Swartland received only half its long-term average in June and less than 10% of the long-term average during July and August. No further rain had fallen by the time of the discussion in September.
“Without water, you can’t produce grain,” Blanckenberg said.
However, he stressed that drought was only part of the problem. Grain income had declined 31% over the previous three years, while weak wheat prices were accelerating the move into alternative crops. Canola had already displaced 31% of wheat hectares in the Swartland.
The consequences of continued decline would extend throughout the economy. Corné Louw, applied economics and member services lead at Grain SA, said the wheat value chain contributed an estimated R70 billion to R75 billion to the South African economy and supported around 90 000 jobs. The Western Cape, which produced approximately 55% of the country’s wheat, accounted for an estimated 27 000 of these jobs.
Inadequate marketing mechanisms
At the heart of producers’ frustration was a market that they said failed to adequately reward the value of local wheat. Louw pointed to data from the Bureau for Food and Agricultural Policy that showed that in 2024/25, South African wheat had approximately 39% higher baking value and 14% higher milling value than comparable imported wheat, yet its grade-weighted Safex price was about 9%, or R700/t, lower. “There must be a premium on good quality,” Louw said.
Blanckenberg said local wheat was trading at about R5 070/t in September compared with around R5 900/t for US wheat, questioning why international prices were not being reflected locally, especially since local quality was higher.
The import tariff was therefore an important part of restoring competitiveness. Louw however lamented that it took 47 days between a tariff being triggered and implemented. Grain SA had applied to the International Trade Administration Commission (ITAC) for a quicker system that could adjust tariffs on a set monthly schedule. “The ITAC declined, saying that since there were various ministers that had to approve the tariff, the implementation could not be sped up,” Louw explained.
Concerns that greater tariff protection would substantially increase food prices also needed to be viewed in context, according to Blanckenberg.
“If you raise the local wheat price for farmers by R1 000/t through a tariff, then the price of bread will rise by R0,50. Government can use this tariff income to subsidise the bread if they are worried about the man on the street not being able to afford the R0,50 increase.”
Pricing reform would also have to address the transport differential. Louw said around R800/t could be deducted regardless of where grain was delivered, and Grain SA was advocating for a multiple-reference-point system that would include zero-differential zones.
Andrew Bennett, CEO of the South African Cultivar and Technology Agency, said improved genetics offered another route to better competitiveness. Around 18 new wheat varieties with better yield potential were expected within the next year or two, while new breeding technologies could potentially reduce breeding cycles from 12 years to four.
For the industry, however, the immediate concern was how much more local production could be lost before reform arrived. With South Africa already dependent on imports for roughly half its wheat requirements, panellists warned that protecting the remaining production base had become an economic and food-security imperative.
