SA hopeful as Argentina stops wheat exports

Despite A poor wheat harvest due to climatic conditions, there may be hope for SA producers as Argentina has stopped all wheat exports in light of its own poor harvest of only 8 million tons, down from last season’s 16 million tons.
“This is good news for local producers, as prices will definitely go up,” said Dr Philip Theunissen, forensic auditor at Forensies.com. Producers have systematically reduced their wheat plantings over the past five years, as low-quality Argentinean wheat was imported at prices below South African production costs.
According to Dr Theunissen, with Argentina out, we will have to import up to 1,5 million tons of high-quality wheat from the US or Canada to supplement our harvest. Our wheat is expected to be poor quality this season, necessitating blending with good quality wheat. US Hard Red currently trades at R3 100/t, US DNS at R3 650/t, and Canada CWRS at R4 060/t.
But grain trader Hendrik Fouché countered that the South African quality issue is mere speculation and exaggerated. André Odendaal, a VKB trader, told Farmer’s Weekly Safex will still follow the Argentinean price, which he predicts to be about R3 000/t, if the exchange rate remains the same. – Wouter Kriel