DAFF releases winter weather outlook

With above normal rainfall during the 2013/2014 summer in most parts of SA, crops, veld and livestock are in a ‘reasonable’ to ‘good’ condition.

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According to a weather advisory released by the Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (DAFF), dam levels were above 80% in most provinces, except in the Western Cape, where levels stood at 67%.

DAFF’s Famine Early Warning System Network report indicated that most rural households across the SADEC region will maintain minimal food insecurity until September, relying mainly on own produced food stocks from the main season’s harvest, supplemented by market purchases.

Despite an erratic start to the season, the good rains received in many parts have led to above-average harvest prospects in Zimbabwe, Zambia and South Africa. Malawi and Mozambique are expecting good production, despite the late onset of rains and localised mid-season dry conditions. Angola and Namibia were more affected by adverse weather conditions during the season.

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According to the report, regional cereal availability was likely to be above that of last year and close to the past five-year-average, and will be sufficient to meet regional requirements for at least the next six months.

Regional informal cross-border trade was expected to increase following the harvest, and flows out of Zambia could be more robust in the outlook period, following the recent lifting of national export restrictions.

The commencement of harvests led to maize price stabilisation and significant price drops have been observed on most reference markets across the regions, said DAFF in a statement.

Neither above- nor below-normal rainfall is favoured in winter rainfall areas, but there is a weak probability for above-normal rainfall over the central interior. Farmers in winter rainfall areas are advised to plan their activities in accordance with weather conditions usually associated with the particular period/season in their area.

Maximum temperatures indicate a below-normal tendency, while minimum temperatures do not favour any category. Farmers are encouraged to continually check updates and utilise seven-day weather forecasts for their short-term planning.

As the winter season progresses, farmers are advised to continually ensure that livestock are kept in balance with carrying capacity and make provision for additional feed, including licks, to give livestock sufficient nutrition.

Farmers in the winter rainfall areas are advised to choose suitable cultivars. Water and other resources should be conserved continually.

Cold front activity is likely to increase; hence isolated incidents of flooding are possible in winter rainfall areas and very cold conditions in most areas of the country. Firebreaks should be constructed in summer rainfall areas in anticipation of conditions conducive to veld fires towards the end of winter.