FMD outbreak may push red meat prices higher this festive season

Dr Justin du Toit, an agricultural economist and agribusiness specialist at Vuna Agribusiness, said consumers needed to understand that the outbreaks of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in South Africa had created challenges such as livestock movement restrictions and export suspensions, despite progress in controlling the disease across provinces like KwaZulu-Natal, Gauteng, Mpumalanga, North West, and the Free State.

He added that the export ban increased the total volume of meat available in the country, which normally suppressed prices.

“This is countered by the annual surge in festive season demand and, crucially, by the supply chain disruptions caused by the outbreaks. So, while a national shortage [of red meat] is unlikely, consumers could face regional price volatility. Areas close to outbreak ‘hot spots’ may experience temporary shortages and localised price hikes as retailers struggle to maintain consistent stock,” Du Toit told Farmer’s Weekly.

He added that the outbreaks are cutting export revenue, delivering a major blow to the industry: “The outbreaks stripped South Africa of its FMD-free status, prompting immediate import bans of red meat in key markets like the Middle East and Asia.”

Furthermore, he praised the Industry-Government Task Team on Animal Disease Prevention, Management, and Control Ministerial for rolling up their sleeves and taking hands-on action. He said the response has been robust and well-coordinated, despite significant challenges.

“The new task team is a clear sign of coordinated action. On the ground, provincial veterinary services are working tirelessly; the team in the Free State, for instance, has been commended for its professionalism.

“We are also seeing industry-led initiatives, with [Red Meat Industry Services] coordinating the purchase of 644 000 vaccine doses for the farmers,” Du Toit explained.

Frikkie Maré, CEO of the Red Meat Producers’ Organisation, said consumers could be assured that supermarket shelves will be fully stocked with red meat this festive season, with only minor logistical bottlenecks expected.

He added that while red meat prices were expected to rise, it will be by less than most people anticipate.