Photo: Lindi Botha
The import tariff, which comes into effect on 1 August 2025, currently stands at 30%.
“The smaller crop derisks the tariff scenario for South Africa in the short term,” Shane Hartman, CEO of Global Macadamias, told Farmer’s Weekly. “But it’s not sustainable in the long term, as the world crop is increasing exponentially. Anything above 10% is not economically feasible, since it would curtail demand in the US.”
Alex Whyte, director of Green Farms Nut Company, added that the US had long been an important market for specific macadamia grades, particularly halves and pieces.
“In the short term, we will need to find new destinations for these products, but the timing is somewhat fortunate considering the smaller global crop,” he said in a press release.
Following the completion of the bulk of the harvest, Macadamias South Africa (SAMAC) released an updated crop forecast for the 2025 season. While the initial estimate was set at 93 433t at the start of the year, only 85 166t were now expected to materialise.
Marnus Erasmus, senior data analyst at SAMAC, explained in an industry update that in KwaZulu-Natal, an unusually warm autumn disrupted flowering in certain cultivars, resulting in lower-than-expected yields.
“Limpopo experienced a cold August in 2024, which damaged flowers and young trees, further reducing yields across various cultivars.
“Mpumalanga faced its own challenges, with a warm and dry spring followed by late rains. This led to smaller-than-expected nuts and underperforming orchards. Several macadamia farmers were also impacted by severe hail damage in the Lowveld region,” he added.
Australia’s mid-season macadamia crop forecast has been downgraded due to severe storms and flooding. The season is now expected to deliver a crop of between 37 300t and 41970t, down from the earlier estimate of 55 960t. Processor intakes are expected to be well below their early season forecast, resulting in possible shortages on the market.
Hartman said that the lower volumes could result in prices lifting towards the end of the season if demand continued on its current high trajectory.
On the impact of the US tariffs, he noted that macadamias exported from Australia to the US only attracted a 10% tariff, which could mean that more Australian macadamias were sourced for the US market.
“This would leave holes in other markets, which South Africa could fill,” he added
Whyte noted that the US was not self-sufficient in macadamias and would continue to require imports. He added that while the 30% import tariff was a challenge, it was not cause for panic.
“The industry is in a strong position to weather this storm because it has no carryover stock from the previous season and is well forward sold for the 2025 season,” he said.
