I was never any good at it, but I still haven’t found anything better able to relax my mind than paddling out far beyond the breakwater and sitting on a surfboard staring out at the ocean.
What I also remember very well, is falling off my board, being drawn to the ocean floor by the force of breaking waves and the terrifying, breathless eternity that would pass as a set of big waves kept tossing me around before finally passing and allowing me to gasp for air.
I was reminded of this feeling of drowning while reading news from around South Africa these past few weeks. Waves and waves of bad news breaking, leaving South Africans gasping and afraid for what the future might hold.
And it is not just a case of the media fixating on the bad instead of the good; the signs are everywhere. From the performance of our economy and labour market, for example, it is clear that South Africa is slipping, and we need to take action fast if we want to turn things around before our country becomes a failed state.
At the Produce Marketing Association Fresh Connections: Southern Africa Conference in Cape Town recently, Daryl Ilbury, a researcher and senior writer for mindofafox (a team of scenario planners and corporate strategists including best-selling authors of The Mind of a Fox, Chantell Ilbury and Clem Sunter), presented the South African scenario gameboard.
Due to heightened global financial volatility, along with political uncertainty and poor local economic growth, South Africa is at a tipping point, which could determine whether it becomes a “Premier League” or “Second Division” country, or even a failed state.
According to Ilbury, thanks to the country still ranking among the 61 most competitive countries in the world (South Africa is currently 53rd on the list published by the World Economic Forum), we are still playing in the Premier League, but only just.
However, the likelihood that South Africa will slip into the Second Division is now rated higher than the likelihood of us remaining among the top countries for global investment.
Premier League countries are attractive to investors as they have a combination of policy and institutional stability, and have a higher competitiveness ranking globally. Since last year, the mindofafox team has adjusted the likelihood of South Africa continuing to rate among the Premier League countries down from 45% to 30%.
The probability of South Africa becoming a Second Division economy –these countries may be peaceful, but will ultimately remain poor due to uncompetitive economies – has been increased from 45% to 60%. The probability of South Africa becoming a failed state remains at 10%.
